Panguitch won this one last year, followed closely by Rich, St. Joseph, and Wayne. The 1A classification can sometimes be a little volatile from year to year due to the effects of incoming and departing runners, so let's take a closer look at what to expect this fall.
1A cross country is, of course, on the small side of things. The state meet last year had seven teams, five of which were able to field the full complement of seven runners. In all, there were 63 girls running in the state race. If we remove the seniors (and mark athletes of unknown grade with a question mark), here's what the field of potential returners looks like:
2 Catania Holman Panguitch HS 20:00.30 1 3 Lyna Garcia St. Joseph CHS 20:02.40 2 4 Emma Peart Rich HS 20:39.60 3 5 Lauren Jackson Wayne HS 20:39.80 4 7 Kate Weil St. Joseph CHS 21:10.20 6 8 Baylee Thompson Duchesne HS 21:20.50 7 9 Stevi Barney Wayne HS 21:21.80 8 10 Bailey Goodwine Monticello HS 21:31.80 9 13 Brooke Barney Wayne HS 21:54.50 12 14 Ellen Peart Rich HS 21:58.30 13 15 Brenna Mooney Panguitch HS 22:03.00 14 ?16 Christiana Behnken St. Joseph CHS 22:20.10 15 17 McKayla Heaton Panguitch HS 22:30.00 16 18 Cambria Welch Monticello HS 22:44.30 17 19 Kaycia Barben Piute HS 22:46.20 -- 20 Darri Frandsen Panguitch HS 22:48.90 18 21 Nikole Lemmon Altamont HS 22:50.20 -- ?22 Brianna Palmer Valley HS 22:50.80 19 23 Shaylee Gleave Piute HS 23:00.80 -- 25 Hannah Ellett Wayne HS 23:05.60 20 28 Sarah Taylor Wayne HS 23:34.50 23 ?29 Amber Wilson Panguitch HS 23:34.80 24 ?30 Hailey Jo Allred Duchesne HS 23:39.10 25 31 Tomasina Yellowman Whitehorse HS 23:39.70 -- 32 Shawni Williams Dugway HS 23:48.00 -- 33 Catrina Johnson Wayne HS 23:59.70 26 ?35 Cheyenne Cox Valley HS 24:05.00 28 36 Elena Mitchell Monticello HS 24:08.30 29 ?37 Jenna Ellett Wayne HS 24:09.50 30 38 Brittany Keith Monticello HS 24:16.10 31 39 Ashley Hoggard Monticello HS 24:16.30 32 40 Shonia McKinnon Altamont HS 24:19.80 -- ?41 Audrey Harris Valley HS 24:26.70 33 42 Sierra Leech Bryce Valley HS 24:36.00 -- ?43 Shelby Lewis Monticello HS 24:40.70 34 ?44 Hailey Peatross Duchesne HS 24:40.90 35 45 Brittney Bowers Rich HS 24:44.30 36 ?46 Stormy Cox Valley HS 24:46.70 37 ?47 Olivia Scammell Oakley School 24:57.50 -- 48 Kaitlin Clark Monticello HS 25:05.70 38 ?49 Danielle Stanley St. Joseph CHS 25:21.90 39 50 Cassie Young Duchesne HS 25:40.00 40 ?51 Kori Ann Remund Duchesne HS 25:50.30 41 ?52 Jessica Wood Valley HS 26:02.50 42 53 Kieona Jones Duchesne HS 26:12.10 43 54 Mariah Cole Dugway HS 26:23.70 -- 55 Rachel Sutherland St. Joseph CHS 26:30.50 44 ?56 Sarah Williams St. Joseph CHS 26:39.70 45 ?57 Neela Manss Dugway HS 26:45.50 -- ?58 Maryn Mooney Panguitch HS 26:56.10 46 ?59 Brooke Cox Valley HS 27:08.70 47 60 Nelsine Black Monument Valley HS 27:10.10 -- ?61 Kierstin Ford Green River HS 28:47.90 -- 62 Valerie Murphy Wendover HS 30:57.40 -- ?63 Cindy Barrea Wendover HS 32:12.10 -- Fortunately, we know the years of graduation for most of the top returning runners. Otherwise, projections would get a little more difficult than they already are. Rich was rocked most by graduation, losing three runners off of last year's state roster. Obviously, that puts them in a position of catch-up with the other three members of last year's big four. The others will fairly minimally--and roughly equally--impacted by the toll of this spring's graduation. Going to data a little more current that last fall's state cross country results, we turn our attention to the rankings of 1A returning runners at both 3200 and 1600 meters (including 1600 to expand the pool just a little), starting with the 3200:
and then to the 1600:
Judging by the track and field rankings from this spring, you can probably make the case that Monticello joins the big four, but that Panguitch holds the edge in their race to repeat.
Catania Holman, Aubrey Taylor (who didn't even run at last year's state meet), Brenna Mooney, and Darri Frandsen give the Bobcats a nucleus that's going to be very difficult to displace if they're all healthy for the state meet. So, pencil in Panguitch as favorites to repeat, then watch closely in the early weeks of the season to see how that projection is holding up.