Two days out from the Utah state cross country meet, it's time to start taking a look at what's coming to the starting line. Here's our glance at the 5A story.
5A Boys
There was a day when American Fork didn't win this thing annually. But it definitely seems like a long time ago.
The dynasty appeared to be teetering on the heels of last spring's track season where Davis had dominated everything in sight (and probably a few things out of sight), but American Fork wasted little time in cross country season returning to their established place at the top of the heap.
It's not that American Fork is completely out of sight, but it is a case of something is going to have to happen that hasn't happened all season if anyone is to overtake AF at the state meet. Davis has the talent in place to make a serious run, but in previous match-ups this season, American Fork has dominated. As a cautionary note, American Fork has had a fairly substantial 5-6 gap all season and that points to an area of vulnerability if one of the top five doesn't race well.
Realistically speaking, however, American Fork comes in as a big favorite. Davis has the appearance of being a solid second, likely followed by Bingham. Things open up dramatically after #3.
Alta's Kramer Morton has been on a serious hot streak of late and has to figure as the individual favorite. Those needing to stay alert for opportunity to arise include American Fork's Connor McMillan, Bingham's Andrew Brewer, and Alex Hedquist and Brayden Cromar of Davis. Some of these guys have been racing better than others lately, but all are dangerous. Getting into the top ten will be a serious accomplishment in this field.
5A Girls
Davis has had some great teams, but I can't think of a team that rivals the 2012 edition. It starts with Ellie Child and Shea Martinez, of course, but it goes very, very deep. I don't think Davis could take second with their second team, but the fact that that question could even arise speaks volumes about how much talent there is on this team. Assuming all courses reported as 5K are legitimate 5K courses, Davis has 10 girls who have run 20-flat or under for 5K this season. Davis ranks as a bigger favorite among the girls than American Fork is among the boys.
The battle for second, however, could turn out to be very interesting. Will this one tilt toward the pack of American Fork or the high-end talent of Bingham? Recent results point to American Fork is the favorite, but it's definitely one to let the race decide.
The individual title figures to come down between Bingham's Emily Rich and either Ellie Child or Shea Martinez of Davis. Things are close enough between these three that it could easily go any of three different ways. The winner should definitely keep notes on what she ate for breakfast and lunch on Wednesday.