Sneaky Top Ten Threats
This section is exactly as it's titled: runners who might not have lit their regions or the speed ratings on fire, but that, for one reason or another, I think have a chance of surprising the field and sliding into the All-American spots or even single digits. Necessarily, some of these selections could be way off, and even more fundamentally, one of the boys who didn't make it in to my top twenty-four could and will do extremely well on Saturday.
24. Brayden Law (SR/Homestead, IN)
Midwest: 5th, 15:03 | Last non-Foot Locker race: 15:41 win @ Mid-East ChampionshipTop 2015 speed rating: 195 (FLMW, 11/28) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: Bubble
23. Matthew Pereira (JR/Lake Zurich, IL)
Midwest: 7th, 15:13 | Last non-Foot Locker race: 16:00 67th @ NXN MWTop 2015 speed rating: 191 (FLMW, 11/28) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: N/A
22. Eric van der Els (SR/Brien McMahon, CT)
Northeast: 5th, 15:30 | Last non-Foot Locker race: 16:09 3rd @ New England ChampsTop 2015 speed rating: 195 (FLNE, 11/28) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: N/A
21. Viraj Deokar (SR/Middlesex School, MA)
Northeast: 6th, 15:30 | Last non-Foot Locker race:Top 2015 speed rating: 195 (FLNE, 11/28) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: N/A
At least per his MileSplit page--and this could be wonky/inaccurate with prep schools--Deokar has run exactly four cross country races in the last three years, with three of them being Foot Locker Northeast. His emphasis on Foot Locker finally paid off this fall with a qualification to San Diego.
20. Joseph Dragon (SR/High Point Regional, NJ)
Northeast: 7th, 15:31 | Last non-Foot Locker race: 15:46 5th @ NJ MOCTop 2015 speed rating: 195 (FLNE, 11/28) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: N/A
19. Matt Grossman (JR/Millburn, NJ)
Northeast: 8th, 15:33 | Last non-Foot Locker race: 15:44 4th @ NJ MOCTop 2015 speed rating: 197 (11/14 NJ Groups) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: N/A
You might be noticing a preponderance of Northeast qualifiers here and to come. The knock against speed ratings has historically been that they're more accurate for the corner of the country that they know better, but after their killer performance in predicting NXN, I'm inclined to trust their FLN projections--which are pretty kind to Northerners this year.
18. Justin Janke (SR/North Central, WA)
West: 15:45, 7th | Last non-Foot Locker race: 15:30 win @ Border Clash
Top 2015 speed rating: 193 (Richland Invite, 10/10) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: N/A
Top 2015 speed rating: 193 (Richland Invite, 10/10) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: N/A
17. Seth Hirsch (JR/Millard West, NE)
Midwest: 6th, 15:11 | Last non-Foot Locker race: 15:18 9th @ NXN
Top 2015 speed rating: 195 (NXN, 12/5) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: 17
Top 2015 speed rating: 195 (NXN, 12/5) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: 17
16. Finn Gessner (JR/Madison La Follette)
Midwest: 8th, 15:17 | Last non-Foot Locker race: 15:18 8th @ NXNTop 2015 speed rating: 195 (NXN, 12/5) | Foot Locker 2014: N/A
Flo50 rank: 16
Gessner and Hirsch could clear up the muddy question of the relative strength of the fields of Foot Locker and NXN--the Midwest duo was 8th and 9th, respectively, at NXN, and I like their chances this weekend. Of course, they could just as easily provide no answers other than that the FLN/NXN double is brutally difficult.