Jordan Cross, left, should be a challenger for the 3A boys cross country title, and his Ogden Tiger teammates are in a favorable position to compete for the team title. Photo by Alan Versaw.
This article begins a series looking at the prospects for the upcoming cross country season. We begin with 3A boys.
The first place to look in trying to uncover the possibilities for this fall's campaign is the state meet results from last year. If we take the top 50 from the 3A boys state meet and remove the seniors (and a surprisingly small number of last year's 3A boys top 50 were seniors) we get the following list:
1 Ben Saarel Park City HS 15:50.30 1
2 Jordon Cross Ogden HS 16:01.80 2
4 Mike Buckley Ogden HS 16:14.20 4
5 Brigham Whitney Desert Hills HS 16:19.20 5
6 Jason Quinn Dixie HS 16:21.90 --
7 Austin Slade Stansbury HS 16:22.90 6
8 Jack Dailey Judge Memorial CHS 16:23.90 7
10 Tanner Anderson Bear River HS 16:24.30 9
11 Colter Merritt Park City HS 16:27.40 10
12 Garrett Marsing Carbon HS 16:33.20 11
13 Brackon Rawlinson Bear River HS 16:33.40 12
14 Kris Hansen Desert Hills HS 16:36.80 13
15 Spencer Stamps Bear River HS 16:37.00 14
16 Sterling Brandley Ben Lomond HS 16:41.00 --
?17 Jared Ellsworth Pine View HS 16:42.10 15
18 Tommy Ingalls Snow Canyon HS 16:43.20 --
19 Nate Gideon Park City HS 16:44.70 16
21 Victor Medina Canyon View HS 16:48.40 18
23 Dayton Wright Ogden HS 16:49.50 20
24 Casey Kimzey Pine View HS 16:52.90 21
25 James Spencer Juab HS 16:55.00 22
26 Carson Garner Ogden HS 16:56.40 23
27 Pedro DeLeon Ogden HS 16:58.10 24
29 Fischer Heimburger Wasatch HS 17:00.80 26
31 Camren Chadwick Bear River HS 17:03.70 27
32 Colton Mahoney Wasatch HS 17:04.10 28
33 Dakota Lange Payson HS 17:04.40 29
34 Jacob Bunker Juab HS 17:04.90 30
35 Joshua McPhie Desert Hills HS 17:06.20 31
36 Ben Powell Desert Hills HS 17:07.10 32
39 Michael Finch Pine View HS 17:11.00 35
40 Kyle Beiling Park City HS 17:17.10 36
41 Josh McCombs Hurricane HS 17:18.20 37
44 Justin Sheets Ogden HS 17:22.00 40
45 Kyle Egan Canyon View HS 17:22.50 41
46 Daniel Pullan Wasatch HS 17:26.20 42
47 Colton Bowler Pine View HS 17:26.40 43
48 Keaton Graham Uintah HS 17:26.70 44
? - indicates an unknown year of graduation, may or may not be back this fall
It doesn't take too much studying of that list to determine that Park City, Bear River, and Ogden should be returning some very nice teams. Stansbury is potentially a very competitive team as well, although that shows more from last year's invitational results than from the state meet results. Desert Hills has the look of a potentially very good team, but does not return quite the same depth from last year's state meet that Park City, Bear River, and Ogden do.
But, last year's state meet results don't tell the whole story. Some athletes missed the state meet due to injury. Many more athletes worked hard over the winter and had significantly improved their fitness by the time track season came around. So, in addition to reviewing the list of returnees from last year's state meet, it's also worth looking at the statewide 3200 meter rankings from this spring. The top 50 3A 3200 who didn't graduate this spring looks like this:
On this analysis, Ogden appears even stronger than the state cross country meet results from last fall would indicate. Park City more or less retains its position from cross country, while Bear River slipped more or less out of view during track season.
In fairness to Bear River, a school doesn't always take all of their best cross country runners and turn them into 3200 specialists in the spring. But, in this case, Brackon Rawlinson, Camren Chadwick, and Tanner Anderson, each of whom should be seniors this fall according to classes reported in results from last season, do not show in any track and field results from this spring. That would not appear to bode well for Bear River this fall. Still, you are hesitant to write off a team that was as good as the Bears were last fall. Bear River will enter this fall's season as the biggest question mark in the 3A ranks.
On the other hand, Pine View strengthened its position by returning four guys who ran 10:42 or better in the 3200 this spring. And, Michael Finch easily qualifies as one of the state's most improved runners between last the fall of 2011 and the spring of 2012. While a 10:42 3200 at the #4 scoring position isn't likely to catapult Pine View past Ogden and Park City to the top of 3A, it should be enough to thrust them into a reasonably competitive position within the 3A ranks in the fall.
3200 results from this spring would appear to position Desert Hills close on the heels of Pine View.
With two full months remaining before anyone puts on their school colors for a meet, the upper hands belong to Ogden and Park City. Both teams have a solid top five in place. And, both teams have, in Ben Saarel and Jordan Cross, the kind of front runner who can set a tone of excellence for the entire team. Right now, it would appear that a slight advantage in depth tilts things in Ogden's favor, but don't be too quick to call this one.